NFL Strength of Schedule 2023: Ranking the easiest and hardest NFL schedules for all 32 teams (2023)

Afterofficial launch of the NFL program, we can determine which teams have the easiest and most difficult 2023NFLschedules With the game dates and times now posted, we can use our estimated team strength calculations and try to figure out who has the easiest and toughest strength in the NFL.

Who has the easiest strength in the NFL?

The New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule strengthfor the 2023 NFL season based on these projections. The Saints benefit from being the strongest rated team in their own division, meaning they play the easier combination of NFC South opponents in six of their games, as well as the relatively weak NFC North.

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Adding the weakest AFC conference, the AFC South, to their schedule only helps. Their third-place finish last year in the division also means they face a lower-tier opponent in the Los Angeles Rams and bottom-half opponents in the New York Giants and New England Patriots.

Who has the toughest schedule in the NFL?

The New York Giants have the toughest schedule forcefor the 2023 NFL season, taking into account the projected strength of all of its teams. That's not surprising, as they'll be playing two of the toughest teams in the NFC, the Eagles and Cowboys, twice in addition to a heavyweight NFC West.

Although the Giants will play the Washington Commanders, which means they should get a breather in their schedule that Washington doesn't, they lose ground to the Commanders by having the Packers, Raiders and Saints on their schedule instead of the Bears, Broncos and Falcon. . Also, the Giants have some of their toughest joint games on the road, like the 49ers, the Bills, and the Dolphins.

Which NFL division has the toughest combined schedule?

At the estimated point, the difference isThe most complicated schedule belongs to the AFC East. Not only did the Bills and Dolphins prove they could be Super Bowl contenders with healthy quarterbacks, but the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets and an expected upgrade for Mac Jones and the Patriots should also mean they've beaten each other. Yeah. in their intra-divisional matches.

They all also have the NFC East on their schedule, which is ranked as the second-biggest division overall, so they'll be playing each other and two NFC favorites for the Super Bowl.

Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on schedule strength

1) New York Giants

The Giants' difficult schedule means they have the best chance of missing the playoffs than any of the 2022 playoff winners.

2) New York Jets

The Jets are the only team projected to go from a .500-plus team to a .500-plus team due to their schedule.

3) New England Patriots

Of all the teams ranked fourth, New England is expected to have the toughest schedule. They lose an International Series home game, which hurts even more.

4) Buffalo Bills

The Bills lose the most in potential playoff probability after falling from 11.6 projected wins to 10.9 in the toughest projected division. With a neutral game in London, they could lose even more.

5) Miami Dolphins

After the Detroit Lions, the Miami Dolphins have the second biggest difference in home vs. away difficulty.

6) Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles and Bills have the toughest schedules of all projected divisional winners.

7) Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams will probably have the most uncertainty in the NFL other than quarterback, with more rookies signed or drafted than any other NFL team.

8) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are tied with the Lions for the most difference in strength between their toughest matchup (Chiefs away from home) and weakest matchup (Bears at home).

9) Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys can benefit more from the quarterback's health.

10) Commanders from Washington

Sam Howell was the most difficult quarterback to project, with the fewest samples available for late-round sophomore quarterbacks who didn't start right away.

11) Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has the most uncertain quarterback schedule, with two games against San Francisco and one game each against Cleveland, Carolina and Washington.

12) Arizona Cardinals

Of the five teams that hired a new head coach, the Cardinals have the worst projected defense and the most to gain from hiring their defensive head coach.

13) Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are the only team with an estimated win probability greater than 50% in all their games.

14) Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have the second most "shots" (45% to 55% win probability) in the NFL on their schedule, behind the New Orleans Saints.

15) San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have the strongest estimated team performance in a world where all quarterback performances are valued equally.

16) Las Vegas Raiders

Along with the rest of the AFC West, the Raiders are expected to play in the strongest division in point spread (AFC East) and the weakest (NFC North).

17) Cincinnati Bengals

The Eagles, Jaguars and Bengals have the toughest schedule strengths in their own division despite being the strongest teams in their division.

18) Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have the biggest difference between their projected wins (7.9) and their 2022 win total (13).

19) Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has one of the smallest estimated differences in point differential between 2022 and 2023.

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has the second most pitches in the NFC behind New Orleans.

21) Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson's presence won a potential four games for the Ravens and led them to the playoffs.

22) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Eagles, Jaguars and Bengals have the toughest schedules in their respective divisions, despite being the strongest teams in them.

23) Cleveland Coffees

Cleveland could go from seven wins to 10 depending on which Deshaun Watson they get.

24) Detroit Lions

The Lions have the largest variation in opponent strength from week to week.

25) Tennessee Titans

The Titans, along with the Saints and Packers, are one of three teams that went from under .500 to over .500 due to their schedule.

26) Chicago Bears

Despite an easy schedule, the Chicago Bears are the only team without a single game on their schedule with an estimated probability of winning of over 50%.

27) Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have the most to gain from model uncertainty, with their most dramatic quarterback trade results of any team.

28) Houston Texans

Houston has the easiest schedule in the AFC were it not for the international games, but the Colts had a road game turned neutral site.

29) Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis does not have a greater than 50% chance of winning in any of its road games.

30) Green Bay Packers

After New Orleans, the Packers have the second friendliest road schedule.

31) Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have the easiest home schedule in estimated point difference and the smallest difference in strength between their strongest opponent and their weakest opponent.

32) New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a projected win based solely on their schedule versus an average team schedule.

Are the schedule force projections accurate?

Using last year's point differential, accounting for game placement, quarterback changes, and luck-dependent events like fumble recovery rate, we can calculate a rough estimate of the strength of each team based on their expected performance against an average opponent on a neutral ground.

This method has done a better job retrospectively of past seasons than pure win totals or point differential and is on par with models like DVOA. However, there must be so much uncertainty in the model that no team is estimated to go below 5.5 wins or above 11.8 wins, although it happens to several teams each season. This is one of the reasons why any strength of the schedule projection is inaccurate.

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Our model represents more than just a team record from the previous season. We take into account if a team was favored by bad luck or untenable luck, e.g. via fumble luck, special teams production, turnover production, and close games.

We also take quarterback changes into account: Teams like the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets will be a little different when it comes to getting better at quarterback. For teams planning to start as rookies or players without a strong track record, we project their performance based on the round they were drafted in and the number of years they've been in the NFL.

In addition, the model includes adjustments for the historical increase in performance for teams coming out of bye weeks, the decline in performance after back-to-back road trips, andestimated loss for long tripsas well as the time zone effects of traveling west for late games and traveling east for early games. There is also a small effect on teams from hot weather, or playing indoors, that are scheduled to play outdoor stadium teams in December and January.

This method doesn't account for all of the offseason changes, so it probably underestimates teams like the Bears that had strong free agency. He also doesn't try to assign any value to the draft, except at quarterback, where he gives those QBs the average performance of all-time draft prospects within his reach.

The effects of distance and time zone are not linear, and the marginal change is less with increasing distance: the difference between a 500-mile walk and a 1,000-mile walk is greater than the difference between a 1,000-mile walk and a 1,000-mile walk. 1,500 miles. hike hiking

For teams traveling to London, there is no "distance" penalty (both teams must travel more than 3,000 miles round trip), except for teams playing in Jacksonville, which has shown quite a bit of home-field advantage. consistent there. In this case, the distance corresponds to a cross-country trip.

Not all unique situations can be accounted for, but there are extreme cases. The good news is that unique situations, like a team taking back-to-back road trips to visit the two Los Angeles teams that choose to stay in the city, have fairly minor ramifications.

It's also possible that he underestimates teams like the New York Jets, where his turnaround at quarterback is more dramatic than the model can explain. It may also underestimate the Cleveland Browns, as the model takes a three-year average of the quarterback's performance, with more emphasis on his most recent season. It might be fair to think that Watson is more likely to perform closer to an MVP level of play.

For players like Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love and Sam Howell, where we have a low portion of their regular season performance, they get credit for being the average rookie quarterback drafted in their range plus a small bonus for sitting on the bench for some time. time.

However, we can pretty much say that both the NFC East and AFC East are going to struggle in some tough matchups.